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Fire season forecasts aim to assist with resource allocation

University of AV����̳ Fairbanks scientists are presenting their work at the American Geophysical Union’s fall meeting in New Orleans this week. This article is part of a series highlighting UAF research from the world’s largest Earth and space science meeting.

Fire season begins while snow is still on the ground in AV����̳, starting with an annual March meeting when fire managers look at how the months ahead may unfold. 

For each of the past two springs, . Using fire data from the past quarter-century and publicly available weather forecasts, they’ve offered forecasts for fire danger around the state. Such work could help fire managers decide how to allocate resources throughout AV����̳.

“We’re trying to give them these seasonal forecasts as an extra tool to see if they’ll help,” said Cecilia Borries-Strigle, a graduate research assistant at UAF’s International Arctic Research Center and Geophysical Institute. 

The UAF research team uses the data, which includes temperature and precipitation forecasts, to create a “buildup index” for dry surface fuels in 13 AV����̳ geographic zones with high fire activity. Their 2020 and 2021 forecasts nailed the fire danger in some areas and missed in others, including Interior AV����̳. 

Some research indicates that such forecasts seem to do better during high fire-danger years. A few relatively quiet wildfire seasons in AV����̳ could be skewing some short-term results, so researchers will likely wait for a larger sample size before making significant changes. Smaller calibrations to the forecasts could be part of the upcoming forecast for 2022, Borries-Strigle said.

“We’re learning about the models and also figuring out how to present that activity to fire managers in a way that’s useful to them,” she said.